Option Workshop blog #economy

Friday, 30 December 2016

Weekend readings, 2016/12/30

Paul Krugman: And the Trade War Came

Corporate America is still in denial about the prospects for a global trade war, even though protectionism was a central theme of the Trump campaign. … The … relevant legislation gives the occupant of the White House remarkable leeway should he choose to go protectionist.

Looks like a trade war is here…read how to benefit from this here

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Monday, 12 December 2016

Trump won and you missed the rally. Now what? Part 1

There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world – John Keynes

Trump’s victory surprised even the most well-informed financial analysts and bloggers. A quick scan of the headlines leading up to the elections showed endless articles which pontificated what a Hillary presidency would mean for markets. And those few articles which did venture a guess at what a possible Trump aftermath would look like seem even more ridiculous now in hindsight:

  • Barclays – 6% fall in the S&P 500 before a partial recovery by year-end
  • Citi – 5% drop in S&P 500
  • RBC Capital Markets – 10% to 12% fall in the S&P 500
  • Wolfers,an economics professor at Dartmouth College – 12% off the S&P 500
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